The Asia Pacific tourism industry is experiencing a surge in growth, with PATA and the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism predicting a significant increase in international visitors to the region by 2028. However, this growth is not uniform, and some destinations are outpacing others. Vietnam, for instance, is expected to record the strongest growth among the region's ten largest destinations, with international visitor arrivals climbing 31.2% to reach 27.8 million by 2027. This is supported by rising demand, stronger connectivity, and continued tourism development. Other high-growth destinations include Macao, China (19.4%), Japan (15.8%), Hong Kong SAR (13.9%), Türkiye (12.7%), and Malaysia (11.6%). These numbers highlight the importance of strong access, clear tourism investment, and distinctive visitor experiences in outperforming slower-growing markets.
China remains the giant of the region, with 157.8 million international arrivals forecast in 2027, but its growth is expected to slow to 2.2% over 2025 levels. This shift in growth rate means that smaller or faster-moving destinations can capture more attention from airlines, investors, and tour operators. Thailand and the United States are also expected to record moderate gains, indicating a more competitive environment for established tourism leaders.
Mongolia is forecast to achieve the highest recovery rate by 2028, reaching 177.8% of its 2019 arrival levels. This suggests rising interest in wide-open landscapes, nomadic culture, and less-crowded travel experiences. However, not every destination will fully recover by 2028, and some will remain in recovery mode through the end of the forecast period. Thailand, the United States, Chinese Taipei, the Philippines, Myanmar, and several Pacific Island destinations are projected to return to pre-pandemic levels only by 2028.
The forecast also highlights the importance of source-market behavior in shaping the next travel cycle. Chinese travelers are expected to continue supporting outbound demand, although cautious spending and a stronger domestic-travel preference may soften the pace of recovery. Hong Kong SAR and Macao are expected to remain the top two destinations for Chinese travelers through 2028. Korea (ROK), Canada, and Mexico are also expected to generate substantial outbound volumes, although growth will vary by market.
The outlook is positive, but PATA identifies several risks that could influence performance over the next few years, including geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, fuel prices, aviation costs, and air-connectivity challenges. Inflation and higher living costs in some source markets may also reduce discretionary travel spending, especially for middle-income households and long-haul travelers. However, expanding airline networks, airport development, improved visa facilitation, and stronger intra-regional travel demand are expected to support many Asia Pacific destinations.
Data-driven planning becomes a competitive advantage in this volatile market. The PATA mid-year forecast provides annual and quarterly forecasts for 39 destinations, along with analysis of major source markets, destination performance trends, and macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. This makes the forecast a planning tool for travel businesses, allowing hotels to plan investment and room supply, airlines to assess route demand, airports to prepare capacity, tourism boards to target stronger campaigns, and investors to identify destinations where recovery has already turned into expansion.
In conclusion, Asia Pacific tourism is growing, but not all destinations will benefit equally. The next tourism winners will be agile and experience-led, focusing on improving connectivity, controlling expenses, enhancing digital capabilities, attracting diverse sources of visitors, and creating new tourist experiences that respond to the changed needs of tourists. This region could be on the path to recovery by 2028, but the key to success will be smart and sustainable growth.
